Zacharias Michas: Putin’s curve shot in Nagorno Karabakh
10/11/2020Strange things are happening in Transcaucasia, where until yesterday Moscow seemed to be watching the developments numbly, without reacting. The situation was inexplicable, so one wonders if there was a particular reason for the Kremlin’s stance, which was incompatible with the image we are accustomed to. However, the conclusion of the tripartite agreement between Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, with the Azeri army advancing on the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, creates a new landscape, as long as things remain as they are.
Putin and truce
Punishment from Moscow
Four fronts
- The first is Belarus, where social protests against Lukashenko continue in the most “brotherly” country to Russia, and yet nothing can be considered guaranteed. The plight of the Armenians is also a message to the Belarusians.
- The second is Central Asia, focusing on Kyrgyzstan, where there is a power vacuum, with many exogenous and anti-Russian actors trying to put their stamp on it.
- The third is the nationalist upsurge in Ukraine, which is also being rewarded by President Zelensky. Following Azerbaijan’s attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, there has been talk of an attack on the pro-Russian Donbas, and especially the strategic city of Gorlovka. Yesterday’s agreement, however, may put Ukrainians in second thoughts.
- The fourth front, where things seem to be going anti-Russian, is in Moldova. The defeat of Dodon’s pro-Russian leadership is seen by observers as a given, after his performance in the first round of elections. The finalization of the defeat is considered to open the issue of Transnistria. It is clear that in the case that Russian control is lost there, the union of the region with Romania is extremely likely. This means that NATO will take another step closer to the Russian border.