The defeat of Armenians defeat brings closer what Erdogan's plan against us

Ω Panos Panagiotopoulos
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The defeat of the Armenians brings closer what Erdogan's plan against us, Panos Panagiotopoulos

Most of the Greek media devoted little time to cover the dramatic developments of the war in the Caucasus, launched by Azeri forces with the aim of uprooting Armenians from their ancestral lands in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Maybe because some people think that the Caucasus is very far from Greece and what is happening there does not affect us. Perhaps, again, because in recent years Greek-Azerbaijani cooperation has advanced in the field of energy. In any case, few thought that the dramatic developments for the Armenians directly concern Hellenism, because they are a "general rehearsal" by Erdogan, for what will follow against Cyprus and Greece.

First, Erdogan did not involve himself in the Caucasus by chance. The Azeris were not going to attack Nagorno-Karabakh if ​​they had not been motivated by Ankara and if they did not know that they had the full support of the Turkish military machine.

Second, the Azeris acted as Erdogan's "long-arm" as part of a neo-Ottoman expansion plan aimed at making Turkey a superpower with influence in a geographical area beginning in North Africa, including the Balkans, the Eastern Mediterranean and reaching the Middle East. It extends to the East in the Caucasus and Central Asia, which has Muslim populations and Turkic ethnic populations. We note that Erdogan even went so far as to interfere in the internal affairs of the People's Republic of China, appearing as the 'protector' of the Muslim, Turkic Uighur minority living in Western China!

Third, the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh was until last September a post-Soviet war, which had been frozen for 26 years after the Armenian victory in 1994. There had been fierce clashes in which Armenian forces, under orders, and Russian officers, such as General Khatsaturov (who had remained in Armenia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union), had also managed to occupy Azerbaijani territory outside Nagorno-Karabakh, opening a large corridor connecting it with Armenia.

The Armenian complacency

Fourth, to understand how 150,000 Armenians were found living in a mountain range in the Caucasus surrounded by Azeris, one must go back to the Soviet era. At that time, Azerbaijan and Armenia were Federal Socialist Republics and Azeris and Armenians were Soviet citizens. The truth is that Stalin never liked the Armenians' insistence on maintaining their identity and cultural characteristics.

Thus, he arbitrarily decided to hand over Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan, even though the area was predominantly Armenian and was full of Armenian monuments and monasteries. The collapse of the Soviet Union brought to the surface the great ethnic differences of the past, which led to the armed conflicts mentioned above.

Fifth, the Armenians rested on the victories of 1994 and the Military Cooperation Agreement with Russia. In addition, Armenia, from 2015 onwards, found itself in a deep internal political crisis. Governments were overthrown by popular mobilizations and political leaders were overthrown and taken to court for scandals (like former President Sarkisian). From this crisis emerged the current Prime Minister, well-known journalist, Nicole Pasinian, who signed the humiliating capitulation.

Throughout the crisis, Armenia did not modernize its Armed Forces, did not invest in new military technologies, or develop a modern defense strategy, even though it knew the Azeris were waiting around the corner. Turkey, despite a temporary downturn in its relations with Armenia under Davutoglu, kept its borders tightly closed, tightening its cooperation with Azerbaijan by selling the country weapons systems.

Turkey-Azerbaijan cooperation

Sixth, the Armenian governments did not seem to wake up even when Azerbaijan began to change rapidly, taking advantage of the billions of dollars from the sale of oil and gas. The Aliyev government has sought to integrate the country into the geostrategic dynamics of the new pipelines, developing close relations with both the West and Moscow. The petrodollars enriched the Aliyev family (which rules by inheritance!) and "lightened" the secular appearances of the first lady, but at the same time gave the opportunity to prepare a modern army, buying weapons systems from Russia, Turkey, Israel, China, etc.

In recent years, Azerbaijan-Turkey military cooperation has surpassed all previous such deals. The Azeri Armed Forces had Turkish instructors and their General Staffs were flanked by Turkish advisers. The same happened to the Security Services, which had been turned into an MIT branch in the Caucasus. In addition, Turkey has reorganized the Azeri Air Force and air defense, equipping them with high-tech missile systems.

Seventh, the recent war lasted about six weeks. A few days before the Azeris launched the attack, large-scale military exercises by Turks and Azeris, near the border with Armenia, had preceded them. After completing the exercises, 120 Turkish officers remained in Azerbaijan to direct the military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh. Before Aliyev could speak, Erdogan hurried to lead the campaign! "Peace must prevail in the Caucasus, but first the Armenians must leave and Nagorno-Karabakh must be liberated by the Azeri troops," he said with the brutality that characterizes him.

Eighth, the Armenian forces of Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian volunteers fought hard to defend their ancestral lands from the Turkish-Azerbaijani invasion. However, the correlations did not favor them. The Azeris had a large force and a well-equipped army, while the Armenians were lagging behind in this area.

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