Stavros Lygeros: Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis win a second term?

It is a rule almost without exception. When a political leader who has not served as prime minister wins elections and forms a government, the first year is his to claim. It is the well-known grace period. Kyriakos Mitsotakis has been no exception. He received political benefits many times over from issues he handled well. And his mistakes were downplayed.

This was true even for Tsipras, who rose to the post of prime minister under extremely difficult conditions and since at that time he was seen as “anti-systemic” and thus had against him the creditors and the domestic establishment. When the political-electoral tide flow is followed by the ebb, when public opinion turns its back on a government, the opposite is true. Whatever positive thing the government may do is degraded. On the contrary, its mistakes are inflated. It may not be fair, but that is how political dynamics work.

The reason I mention this is to avoid a common mistake: to project the current political climate on a four-year horizon. Since last year, some have been assuring that “Kyriakos has a second four years in his pocket”! This may happen, but anyone who anticipates it today does not understand that a long-term forecast for political-electoral dynamics is a wager.

The difficulties would begin for Mitsotakis in 2020 and would gradually become more difficult, despite the fact that the current government has the full support of the established media. This fact, however, it may delay, but not prevent the manifestation of popular discontent, whenever it overflows. The usual development was changed by the intervention of the “insane variable”: Covid-19. The pandemic has had a profound effect on social life, the economy, and the political climate. In fact, in the beginning, the hybrid attack organized by the Turkish state in Evros took place with the attempt of a massive invasion of illegal immigrants.

Mitsotakis maintains political hegemony

Shocked by the resistance of the islanders to the repression of the MAT riot police units and the threat of Covid-19, Mitsotakis reacted effectively to the Evros challenge, which strengthened the confidence of the Greeks and credited him politically with a completely successful maneuver. Added to this success was the successful handling of the pandemic that made Greece a shining example internationally.

These two events launched a positive backlash for the Mitsotakis government by citizens who had not voted for him. Even SYRIZA voters admitted that there would have been national damage in Evros if the hybrid attack had taken place during the Tsipras government. Doubts were also expressed about how the previous government would have handled the pandemic, but the hypothetical comparison was not catalytic. In immigration, SYRIZA had expressed its ideology and had given its public “exams” in practice.

The publication of the Pappas-Mionis conversation showed not only that vested interests were not a “privilege” of ND and PASOK, but also a repulsive market political ethos. The Papagelopoulos case suffers procedurally and exudes a sense of revenge, but this too is added to the political equation, even if its electoral impact is insignificant.

With all this, instead of Mitsotakis’ political hegemony starting to wear out, it has probably been strengthened. If elections were held today – as the polls show – he would win them comfortably, although even “blue” voters would not approve of such a move in these circumstances. 2023, however, is far from a reliable prediction.

SYRIZA has not found its pace

The division – at the level of executive potential – of SYRIZA for an enlargement towards the Center-Left worsens its image. The most important thing, however, is that it has not found a foothold as an official opposition. Due to its memorandum policies, it is generally not convincing when it “shoots” at the government. Moreover, due to the pandemic, Mitsotakis adopted Keynesian-inspired financial measures.

The recent mobilization of the armed forces to prevent the surveys of “Oruc Reis” was positively received by the government, although the bill will have to be paid when the Greek-Turkish negotiations will begin soon. Although on the national issues front the government is rather reeling between two strategies, it will not pay political-electoral costs as long as Greek-Turkish relations move in the context so far.

But things are different on the socio-economic front. The fact that the pandemic has had serious economic consequences internationally, reduces the impact of the Greek economic crisis on the political level. However, it cannot make it disappear. Autumn is expected to be very difficult financially and socially. The contraction of GDP in the second quarter, due to the lockdown, will be complemented by the heavy costs paid by Greek tourism. If, as everything shows, we have a second wave of the pandemic, the Greek economy will fall to its knees, resulting in a spike in unemployment and impoverishment.

Popular dissatisfaction

The package from the EU Recovery Fund will start to have a positive effect on the Greek economy from 2021 and in a way that can not be calculated at the moment in terms of its results on the economy and consequently on society. The package could be a lever to change the production model, but as a Greek proverb says: “When you hear of many cherries, hold a small basket.”.

So, the problems that the government will face are many, big and difficult to solve, and the current mini government reshuffle will not really help in solving them. In addition, over time, citizens will be less lenient. With mathematical precision, from a point in time beyond today’s skepticism, political discontent will gradually seep in. The fact that SYRIZA is not convincing as an alternative facilitates the Mitsotakis government, but popular dissatisfaction will be somehow expressed.

Obviously, not in the same way for all citizens. The declared “blue” voters will normally remain in their political-electoral space. The same goes for the former PASOK voters who have now been tied to the ND chariot. However, they are not enough to secure an electoral victory. The ticket to stay in power is given by the voters who traditionally shift between the two parties in power. They are mainly affected by the political deterioration of the government.

The two great enemies

If SYRIZA was fragmented, one could claim from now on that Mitsotakis will win the next elections. Such a development, however, is not visible. Despite internal party controversy, Tsipras remains dominant and has crossed the Rubicon in terms of opening up to the center-left. He seeks to establish SYRIZA as the other pole of the political system and the result of the national elections showed that it is succeeding.

Almost 32% is a good starting point, even if SYRIZA’s real political influence is more reflected in the much smaller percentage it got in European elections. In the national elections, it received the anti-right-wing vote that wanted to balance the sweeping dominance of ND in the municipal-regional elections and in the European elections. As always, the political deterioration of the government will play a role. But whether or not it will prove capable of leading ND to an electoral defeat will depend on whether or not the Mitsotakis government does well in the next two years.

What does doing well mean? Whether it will succeed in getting the Greek economy back on its feet, whether it will avoid losses in national issues and whether it will consolidate and modernize the state. Mitsotakis began his term as prime minister with the strong political capital given to him by the citizens. There are two big enemies: First, current structural issues, which practically means that “he will not be eaten by the lions, but by the bedbugs”. Second, the entrapment in ideologies. And ideologies are not just on the left, but also on the neo-liberal front…