Giorgos Iliopoulos: Kissinger’s geopolitical pentagon and the triangles in the Mediterranean

Many now question the existence of geopolitical criteria and incentives in modern times, noting that other factors are constantly being strengthened, creating a completely different environment on the globe. The main reason for expressing the views of this logic focuses mainly on the decline of US power on the international stage and the emergence of other powers with characteristics that do not seem to meet the demands of geopolitics, as at least as it has developed over the past century.

The 21st century has to show, among other things, after its first decade, some interesting developments in the Eastern Mediterranean, with the main ones being in the economic field the bankruptcies of Greece and Cyprus. In the field of political developments, it is marked by the recent predominance of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the attempt to convert it to an Islamic state with a theocratic regime, the gradual transformation of Turkey into a country with an Islamic regime according to Pakistani standards, and of course the drawn out civil war in Syria.

In this context, the Ottoman grandeur projected by Erdogan (and not just for pre-election reasons) currently precludes the shift of Turkish foreign policy to relations that preclude primacy and impose interdependence. In addition, Turkey envisions its emergence as a regional superpower in the Eastern Mediterranean, adopting the geopolitical standards of the last century and ignoring developments that require different approaches.

Greece, despite its dire economic situation and its upheavals, is an EU-Eurozone country, an element that provides it (at least potentially) with exploitable geo-economic advantages. One of the main ones is the fact that it is a gateway to one of the largest markets in the globe and an important potential future energy hub. At the same time, it is evolving to the point of convergence of many new emerging interests related to the exploitation of its position in transit trade with the EU.

The pentagon in the Eastern Mediterranean

The fluid situation in the region, especially after the latest developments, leads almost effortlessly to the triangular relations imposed by the Kissinger pentagonal model. In this, the five vertices are occupied by Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, Israel and Egypt. If one looks at the pentagon, one can easily conclude that the Erdogan regime’s haphazard foreign policy, in its search for new partners in Russia and Iran, alienates it from Turkey’s traditional Western allies.

In addition, a number of hinge factors, such as the American president’s outspoken stance, the dynamic emergence of Saudi Arabia’s new leader, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, on the international stage, and Erdogan’s rather reckless choice to support the Muslim Brotherhood without factoring in the possibility of their collapse are some of the samples that invalidate, at least in the medium term, Turkey’s approach to the other four vertices.

Given that Turkey, due to its foreign policy, is unable to form a triangular relationship out of the 10 possible ones within the pentagon, it has to face the formation of another form one of the other vertices. Undoubtedly the strongest is the Greece-Israel-Egypt relationship, which is favored by the current circumstances and the escalation of tension between the US and Iran, which also affects Turkey, due to its close relations with Tehran. At the same time, the recent 25-year agreement with China that brings Iran under Beijing control further exacerbates the already fluid situation.

Economic and energy parameters

In addition, the economies of the three countries, as well as their productive activities, remain largely complementary, which stabilizes the formation of a triangular relationship. Egypt is emerging from a long-running crisis starting in 2011 and the events of the Arab Spring. The GDP growth rate is higher than 5%, up from 2018, while foreign investment in the country in 2019 amounted to 46 billion dollars, representing 13% of GDP.

Israel, on the other hand, has intensified its steps towards a free market economy as it enters the 21st century, constantly gaining ground in the internationally competitive environment. The country’s economy is evolving at an excellent pace with almost balanced budgets and is ranked among the most developed countries, especially in cutting-edge technology.

It is logical for Cyprus to adhere to this triangle, mainly due to the tripartite agreement of August 2013 between Greece, Cyprus and Israel, which forms the so-called energy triangle, with the objective of developing and exploiting natural gas deposits. The agreement follows the discovery of the Tamar deposit in 2009, of the order of 535 BCM (billion cubic meters), or 18.9 TCF (trillion cubic feet), of Leviathan in 2010 of the order of 515 BCM or 18.9 TCF and the Cypriot deposit Aphrodite in 2011 of 127.5 BCM (4.5 TCF). To these deposits are added after 2015 the Egyptian Zohr deposit of 850 BCM or 30 TCF and the Cypriot Calypso of 170.0-226.7 BCM.

At the same time, Egypt has the support of Saudi Arabia’s fledgling coalition with the Emirates, with the new agreement between Israel and the Emirates further consolidating the close relations between these countries. Of course, it goes without saying that Israel and Saudi Arabia enjoy the full support of the United States.