Nefeli Lygerou: Erdogan is offering the pretext that Merkel asked him for

December is approaching, and with it the summit, which will decide whether or not to impose sanctions on Turkey and, more broadly, on the future relations of the EU with the troublemaker state of the Eastern Mediterranean. The Union may not have the structures, nor the will to put Erdogan in his place politically and militarily, but it is definitely in a position to hit the faltering Turkish economy hard. And that is exactly what the Turkish president fears.

This explains his last maneuver. It calls on the EU to engage in dialogue, but hastens to clarify the terms indirectly but clearly, accusing it of bias in favor of Greece and the Republic of Cyprus. “We see ourselves nowhere else but in Europe; we intend to build our future together with Europe,” the message said, so that those Europeans seeking to soften the stance on Turkey at the upcoming summit would have some pretext.

Oruc Reis, of course, continues its research undisturbed, reaching just outside Greek territorial waters, with the Navtex war raging. As announced, however, this round of surveys by Oruc Reis will be completed before the summit, so that those partners who have so far torpedoed the efforts to impose sanctions on Turkey have a second pretext.

The Turkish Ministry of Energy announced that the ship “Oruc Reis in the framework of the Demre 2B data collection program “began research on August 10 and to date has collected data in an area of 8,149 square kilometers. With today’s NAVTEX, data will be collected in an area of 2,806 square meters. kilometers and the work will be completed on November 29 “.

As the facts have shown, the Turks will return with the Oruc Reis or perhaps with a drilling rig when the summit is over. Ibrahim Kalin, who went to Brussels for contacts, left open any possibility, saying that Oruc Reis “will leave the area (which it is in now) to go to a completely different point”, without specifying whether the new point will or will not be in the Greek EEZ.

Peddling moderation, Kalin added: “We want exploratory contacts. Let’s discuss the continental shelf, the status of the islands… We want stronger cooperation with our friends and allies… Turkey has no problem with any country or institution that can not be settled through diplomacy and dialogue “!

There are no positive messages

As mentioned above, Ankara has reason to believe that there are EU member states that are willing to “buy” its obvious maneuver. Merkel’s latest statement, moreover, was a warning that if Erdogan continued like this, Berlin would not be able to help him. She said “things did not go the way we all wished” about Turkey’s stance.

The German Foreign Minister had warned Ankara even more clearly, coming to the EU Foreign Minister Council. He said that if Turkey does not change its behavior at the summit, sanctions will be raised. On the same wavelength is Josep Borrell: “So far there are no positive messages from the Turkish side”, adding that “to return to the positive agenda, as we hope, we will demand a fundamental change of tactics on the part of Turkey”.

It was precisely these public warnings that caused the Erdogan regime’s rhetorical shift to moderation. There is, however, no commitment from Ankara that policy will change from now on, which justifies any reservations. It is noteworthy, in fact, that Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar played the role of “bad cop”, reinstating the theory of gray zones, referring to specific inhabited Greek islands in the eastern Aegean.

France is determined

France, however, seems determined not to let Berlin derail its crackdown on Turkey once again. It is clear that if the opportunity of the forthcoming summit is missed, where everyone has agreed that the issue of Turkey will be discussed in order to make decisions, then the case will be referred to the unforeseen future. It is noteworthy, in fact, that Paris is also adding to the agenda the Turkish intervention in the Nagorno-Karabakh war.

According to reports, the December summit will raise the issue of freezing the EU-Turkey Customs Union, but because it also affects European interests, the French side intends to use it as a bargaining chip in order to get a European arms embargo on Turkey. France, after all, has nothing to lose, as its relative exports are insignificant. Instead, the embargo will hit arms exports from Germany, Italy, and Spain. Athens, however, has officially raised the issue in the EU, calling for a ban on the export of certain weapons systems.