Apostolos Apostolopoulos: Erdogan made his move, now its Mitsotakis’ turn

This is not the first time that Greece and Turkey seem to reach the precipice of open conflict. The only time that there was indeed a confrontation was in Imia, with Prime Minister Costas Simitis, the only Greek prime minister who recognized with his signature Turkish interests in the Aegean. Whether there was a real (and not undermined) conflict in Imia is another matter.

The previous Greek-Turkish crisis was in March 1987 and it happened, as Kissinger had told then PM Andreas Papandreou, to frighten people in the two countries and start talks. So it happened. Later, Papandreou made self-criticism in Parliament. The historical references were not stated to make the text longer. These are two “models” of crisis management, the absolute and exclusive responsibility of each prime minister.

This remains true now. The sole person responsible for overall management of such situations is, according to the constitution, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The Greek prime minister had therefore told President Trump that “we will fight if the Turks force us.” Trump asked him, “What if you lose?” Mitsotakis’ (unpublished) answer was: “we will not lose” (I consider the information valid and it does not come from a political friend of the prime minister).

Of course, this remains to be proven in practice. But more important is the very statement of the Prime Minister, the announcement of the decision at the highest possible level that if Turkey provokes, it will face decisive resistance. Of course, when one talks with the president of the USA, one does not speak “off the cuff”, nor does one show thoughtless bravado. It goes without saying that Erdogan is aware of this dialogue.

Whispers about backing down

I do not know of intentions, behind-the-scenes approaches, pressures from different centers of power, foreign influences. And since I am not a soothsayer, I can not predict how this episode will develop. However, it is strongly reminiscent of the crisis of March 1987. I know, like all Greeks, that there is a sizable segment of the political elite, lacking popular support but strong in political circles, eager for any kind of retreat.

But the decision depends only on the prime minister, as provided by the Constitution. I can see no way to blame third parties, as scapegoats who will have allegedly neglected their duty. And of course no one is willing to take on the role of coward, or be considered a turncoat much more so in such a difficult situation.

If this crisis is indeed a repetition of the 1987 crisis in order to precipitate talks with the other side, it is probably a waste of effort. Talks have already taken place in Berlin and Cavusoglu, I believe, revealed them because they failed. Because the Turkish demands are wildly absurd, it was impossible to satisfy them! If the crisis is not a crisis, as I suppose, but it is only a demonstration from the Greek side that we are ready “just in case”, all is very well.

The possibility that Erdogan is being egged on (by the Americans or Russians or both) so he can fall into a trap, as for example Saddam Hussein was trapped and hanged, also cannot be ruled out (because the Sultan is pushing the limit). But that’s his business, and its his head on the line! However, Erdogan behaves as if he does not know that the proverbial pitcher goes to the well many times but it only breaks once.