Stavros Lygeros: The coronavirus has already refuted 3 + 1 certainties of globalization

We may not yet be able to see the light at the end of the tunnel of the unprecedented situation we are experiencing, but the coronavirus already has a lot to teach us. The first and most important thing is that the illusion of the post-war generation that humankind has permanently left behind what caused the catastrophes of previous centuries is being dispelled.

The peace imposed by nuclear mutual assured destruction, although it was at times threatened, has generally given the impression that wars, like the two world wars of the 20th century, are a thing of the past. Wars will be fought, but they will be regional and will not touch westerners. So far this impression has been confirmed, but the steady slide from the post-Cold War “unipolar” world into an increasingly volatile and potentially anarchic multipolar world may disprove this first certainty in the future.

The second certainty is that humanity is no longer threatened by deadly pandemics. Some epidemics, of course, will occur every now and then, but due to its evolution, science will intervene quickly and bring them under control, without actually disrupting the daily life of at least the western man. This has generally been the case with previous outbreaks, as well as the annual flu epidemic. All of them may have left dead in their wake, but they were not able, even temporarily, to reverse our way of life.

As the facts show, Covid-19 has come a long way in disproving this certainty. What the Greeks have been living under, in recent months, along with all other peoples, is novel and unprecedented in history. Some, initially citing the rather small number of deaths and the fact that they were mostly elderly people with underlying health issues, had considered the restrictive measures too much.

Herd immunity

Over time, however, we have seen the outcome of countries that initially chose “herd immunity”, that is, the decision to not take drastic measures. Britain, Sweden, USA, Brazil, etc. paid and continue to pay dearly for this choice of theirs. As it turns out, they were forced to go to lockdown tardily, but in the meantime they mourned countless victims.

Greece was rather fortunate in this respect. The fact that in Italy the pandemic was a phase ahead in time was a factor that prompted the Mitsotakis government to take drastic restrictive measures without delay and thus prevent the virus from spreading uncontrollably. This handling is undoubtedly credited politically to the prime minister.

One hopes that all this will be a thing of the past in a few months. Scientific predictions, however, speak of a second wave, and the resurgence already observed worldwide seems to confirm them. Since for obvious financial reasons no general lockdown is going to be imposed again, all we have left is the hope that science will deal with the coronavirus relatively soon. The history of epidemics, however, teaches us that, every now and then, new, or mutated viruses will pose more or less of a threat to public health. In other words, you cannot be rid of them forever.

This realization is not just philosophical. It is also very practical. The first big lesson from the Covid-19 pandemic is that countries need to have fast reflexes, a strong public health system and the ability to procure the necessary materials to protect their populations. It is true that the hospital part of public health in Greece is unacceptable, with the result that many citizens resort to private hospitals. During difficult times, however, it is the public sector that shoulders all the burden, and for the time being, at least, successfully.

The hierophants of neoliberalism

The third certainty that is being dispelled is that we must be led to a shrinking state, incapable of preventing the surge of private initiative, as the hierophants of neoliberalism proclaim. Their critique that the state is inherently bureaucratic, counterproductive and ineffective has a dose of truth. This does not mean, however, that their recipe “to cut off the nose, to spite the face” is justified.

The state does have a tendency to develop these and other evils, but it is irreplaceable. This means, therefore, that all room for improvement needs to be exhausted, rather than being replaced by private companies, which usually raise tup heir hands in times of crisis. The fact that there is a vital need for a strong and efficient state is proven just when a crisis occurs, when a natural disaster, a pandemic, or even a purely economic crisis occur.

We remember what happened in the United States, in the metropolis of unbridled capitalism, in 2008. Neoliberal bankers, who accused the state that its limited regulatory role was an obstacle to their work (casino-capitalism), in difficult times ran to the state for salvation. And the state saved them. The fact that as soon as the crisis was over they repeated the same mistakes does not change things.

The coronavirus and the resurgence of the state

We now see in Greece, and in other countries, that the state is covering as much as possible the very heavy economic costs caused by the restrictive measures to deal with the pandemic. The conclusion is that the state is coming back, dissolving ideologies, which in previous years had unquestionably been declared conventional wisdom.

The pandemic, however, also dispels a fourth certainty that total free trade in the context of globalization is the best solution. I would have a lot to say about that, but let me limit myself to one aspect that we have experienced in the past. It is not possible for the production of vital materials for public health – and not only – to take place almost exclusively in one country, in this case China. The problem with the lack of hospital masks and respirators was indicative.

This practically means that for vital materials not only for defense, but also for public health, cost cannot be the only criterion. The crusaders of globalization have be grounded in reality: as the pandemic has shown, when the storm comes, each country first looks out for itself and this is not going to change through rhetoric and neoliberal ideologies.