Stavros Lygeros: Greece and Turkey with sabres drawn, the preordained crisis and the wrong messages

On June 2, 2020, I wrote on the occasion of the publication of the request of the Turkish state oil company TRAO for research in the Greek EEZ that “this is the chronicle of a preordained crisis”, adding: “It was clear from the beginning that the infamous Ankara-Tripoli memorandum was signed , at which point “things will come to a head” “. And so, now, “things have come to a head” and in fact now that for vague reasons a rift has been caused in Greek-French relations, a fact which in fact weakens Greek deterrence.

Those who, however, exorcised the problem, claiming that Ankara is bluffing, are once again facing proof that the Turks are turning their desires into reality. It is one thing for Greece to avoid tensions and militarization and another to bury its head in the sand. Erdogan has shown that he means what he says and the most recent example is Hagia Sophia.

That is why on June 7 I started my article as follows: “The question is scorching and relentless: what will Greece do if Turkey sends a seismic survey vessel outside Greek territorial waters, but inside the Greek EEZ, as it Ankara has officially announced? Will it be limited to diplomatic reactions, or will it actually prevent the violation of Greek sovereign rights? ”

Lately, Athens has been sending the message that it will not hesitate to prevent Turkish piracy, even with the use of military means. To show, in fact, its determination, since yesterday, when the Turkish intention was announced to send the “Oruc Reis” for research south of Kastellorizo (accompanied by a large number of Turkish warships), the Greek armed forces have been put on alert.

Will Erdogan be convinced that Greece is determined to fight? But even if he is convinced, does he now have the leeway to back down, when he is now exposed both internationally and domestically? The facts show that he does not belong to the category of leaders who, even at the last minute, will seek to find a pretext to back down. On the contrary, so far at least, he has shown that when he enters a path he follows it, at least up to a point, not hesitating to take risks.

Without firing a shot

Without excluding any possibilities, this fact is an indication that in this case he is determined to pull the rope, even if he breaks it. This practically means that it would be a disastrous mistake for Athens to think that he is bluffing and that he will back down at the last moment. A volte face cannot be ruled out, but it would be an gamble for any Greek reaction to be based on this possibility.

Nor should Athens take it for granted that at the last minute some third parties will intervene and prevent the conflict. This is already being attempted by Washington and Berlin, but the result is doubtful. But even if something of the sort does transpire, the price for avoiding conflict will be the start of Greek-Turkish negotiations. According to reports, before his current move, Erdogan has set as a condition for all Turkish unilateral expansionist claims to come to the table and be recognized as disputes that must be resolved through compromise, ie a sharing of Greek assets.

It is a regular tactic of Ankara, moreover, to use faits accomplis and the threat of military force to win on the diplomatic level, without having to fire a shot. The Turkish leadership was – at least until recently – convinced that Greece was not going to react militarily. As I had revealed in SLpress.gr, the representative of the Turkish President Ibrahim Kalin said this clearly to the German government and to the diplomatic adviser of the Greek Prime Minister at the tripartite meeting in Berlin.

The assessment of the Turkish leadership was not arbitrary. Suffice it to recall that Athens had reacted to the Ankara-Tripoli memorandum and to the “stroll” of “Oruc Reis” within the Greek EEZ (as defined based on the principle of equidistance) last February. At that time the Greek government had said that the wind had made it drift!

In their anguish to be find an excuse for the eyes of the Greek public, they had sent the wrong message to the Turkish leadership through such statements and thus paved the way for the current crisis. For this reason, I recall Erdogan’s meaningful statement last February that “our decisive stance in the Mediterranean has begun to be accepted, especially by Greece.”

A copy pasted pre-ordained crisis

The Turkish president repeats in a copy paste manner in the Greek EEZ what he has already carried out in the Cypriot EEZ. There, the first step were exploratory “strolls” of the “Barbaros” research vessel, in order to measure reactions. When he found out that the third parties did not react and that Greece kept its distance (by offering only diplomatic assistance to Nicosia), he took the second step: systematic research in the Cypriot EEZ, again without significant reactions.

The third step was to drill on an unlicensed offshore plot at a remote point west of the Cypriot EEZ. When he again found that the reactions were of a diplomatic nature and that the EU did not impose severe sanctions on the pirate state, he took the fourth step: he sent the drilling rig to an offshore plot, the rights of which are held by the French Total and the Italian ENI. Again, no one stopped the Turks.

The Republic of Cyprus was not able to react dynamically. The same does not apply to Greece, however. So, we come back to the question with which we bagan: what will Greece do now that Ankara is conducting research in the Greek EEZ? Why should Erdogan believe us now when the first test – that took place in early 2020 with the “stroll” of “Oruc Reis” south and a long distance from Kastellorizo – showed him something else?

Closing in on the goal step by step

At that time, the step taken was a “small” one so that Athens could “swallow” it more easily, as it had done. Now, the sea area that Turkey has blocked off through its navtex is a little further north, but again a long way from Kastellorizo, for exactly the same reason. The Turks have learned to reach their goal step by step. When Athens “swallowed” the first accomplished, it was mathematically certain that a second would follow. If there is no practical Greek reaction, we will see Turkish drilling in the Greek EEZ just outside Greek territorial waters, as the Turks have previously announced.

It should be noted that Erdogan does not only seek to seize any energy wealth of the Republic of Cyprus and Greece. At the same time, he seeks to consolidate the “Blue Homeland”, his vision to turn the heart of the Eastern Mediterranean into a “Turkish lake”. This is not in the interests of the other Mediterranean powers, but for the time being at least they are not intervening because they are not directly affected.

As things stand, Greece is in danger of losing control of developments and suffering national humiliation. In Ankara, they estimate that even if Athens tries to obstruct the announced Turkish research, it will do so by maneuvering its naval units. It will not open fire first, to avoid risking a hot confrontation.

Ramming cannot be excluded

In the event that a Greek frigate tries to deter the “Oruc Reis” with maneuvers, as “Nikiforos Fokas” did in the fall of 2018, the Turks will not be surprised as then. They are more likely to ram the Greek frigate with their own ship than to open fire against it. We should note that such a ramming had taken place against the coast guard vessel “Gavdos” and it is not at all unlikely that it will be repeated.

Erdogan has serious reasons not to want a generalized Greek-Turkish war, but to seek a limited hot incident. This is because in a local-limited hot incident the Turkish side can maintain the initiative of moves and therefore the advantage, much more when the incident will take place at some distance from Greek territory.

As I mentioned before, in Ankara they discounted that the Greek ruling elites are not only not willing to take the risk of a conflict, but also that with the first hot incident, they will back down. And immediately after, as happened with the crisis in Imia, with the help of the established Media, they will accuse the “nationalists” and “superpatriots” who dragged Greece into national humiliation! What they do not seem to understand in Ankara is that the Greek political system, even if it wanted to, has no room to back down, without being humiliated and delegitimized. It will not be the first time in history, after all, that a conflict arises from a miscalculation of the other side’s reactions.