Dimitris Makousis: “Blue Homeland” on one side, “Gray Homeland” on the other!

The “Blue Homeland”, as introduced as a doctrine by Kemalist Admiral Cem Gürdeniz in 2006, is the plan of Turkish maritime geopolitics for the 21st century. According to an interview with “Vima” newspaper, the plan consists of two pillars: First, the definition of maritime jurisdiction under Turkish sovereignty (territorial waters, EEZ). Secondly, the establishment of a maritime worldview for Turkey.

The objective of the “Blue Homeland”, according to Israeli strategy and intelligence consultant Eyal Pinko, is to consolidate Turkey’s presence and control in the three surrounding seas (Black Sea, Aegean Sea and Southeastern Mediterranean), with the creation of sea zone of 462,000 km2 of its exclusive sovereignty (Map 1).

Also, the support of economic development – in parallel with the growth of population – by exploiting domestic energy sources, in order to overturn its dependence on third countries1 and the exercise of regional and international influence. Turkey’s transformation into a planetary power presupposes its economic and demographic strength, the formation of geographical areas of sovereignty and / or power, and the development of a state-run military machine that will support the projection of power and, at the same time, expand its political influence.

Turkey needs vital space, which it is claiming by integrating its neighbors into its own neo-Ottoman chariot. Although with a difference of perception regarding its Atlantic or Eurasian orientation, as concerns the wider Greek area, the views of Kemalists and Islamists (doctrine of “Strategic Depth”) coincide.

Economy and energy resources

The Turkish economy relies on its large domestic market and largely on foreign direct investment, portfolio investment and foreign loans, with capital inflows of $ 525 billion (2002-2018). Turkey’s largest trading partner is the EU (56% of exports in 2019) and the main pillars of its economic policy are the promotion of research and development and the increase of exports.

In the last two years, the economic crisis has plagued Turkey again (losses of 15 billion in foreign capital), due to the lack of confidence caused by its foreign policy and its interventions in the central bank. Turkey also has to repay a $ 169 billion debt in the coming months. Growing energy demand creates the need for an increased and secure energy supply.

Securing energy, exploiting and exporting energy resources are also drivers of economic growth. This is especially true in the case of Turkey, whose elite is steadily unfolding its ambitious vision for the country. At the same time, the expected economic growth from the exploitation of these resources will maintain the upward trend of the population, which will strengthen the productive factor of labor.

The application of the doctrine of the “Blue Homeland”

In order to function as a regional actor with broader geostrategic ambitions, disengaged from serving Western interests under the Treaty of Lausanne (1923), which indirectly placed it under Western protection, Turkey must now abolish it in practice. Moreover, its energy dependence leaves it with no choice but to gain access to the new hydrocarbon deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The “Blue Homeland” is the prelude to the “Strategic Depth” doctrine, with which Turkey seeks to fulfill these goals. The need for energy security, independence, and maritime sovereignty pushes Turkey to increase its military power and pressure on Greece. Imperialist Turkey, after securing the maritime space of the “Blue Homeland”, will expand more dynamically by sea to areas where it has already penetrated (Red Sea, Caspian, Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf).

The political support of countries such as Libya and Somalia, the military and naval bases in Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Qatar, Iraq, Syria, etc. (Map 2), the training of third country military personnel, the supply of military equipment and the deployment of mercenaries demonstrate the implementation of Ankara’s plans.

The Turkish Navy, already from 2004 through the Milgem armament program, began the development of the Turkish defense industry, intending to build vessels of various types. This is to strengthen its ability to operate from the Black Sea to the Persian Gulf and Pakistan, with which Turkey has entered into a strategic alliance.

Its goal is to have more than 140 warships (submarines, frigates, corvettes, missiles, minesweepers, aircraft carriers, auxiliaries and aircraft) available in the coming years and to turn Turkey into an exporter of weapons systems. The military strength required for the consolidation of the “Blue Homeland” and the naval sovereignty of Turkey will soon be ready.

The doctrine of the “Gray Homeland”

On the other hand, Greece, with a forecast for a population of 5.5 million in 2100, if the current demographic development continues, has adopted the doctrine of “zero claims”, which the political system proclaims in all tones. Its population decline will not be reversed even with the dreams of the “Greek elite” to replace the population with Muslim citizens who, with a low degree of integration, are the perfect tool in the hands of Turkey for the “peaceful absorption” of Greece.

With an economy locked up for decades, a defense industry devastated by the brutality of the political system and the ideological nihilism that prevails among the ruling class, Greece is signing its own suicide, voluntarily curtailing its economic, military and geopolitical power. Greece’s strategic goals should be the complete exclusion of Turkey from the exploitation of energy resources that do not belong to it, as well as its restriction to the coasts of Asia Minor.

Instead, in a spirit of distorting the true political nature of the Turkish problem, Greece is doing everything it can to give Turkey strategic advantages in support of its ambitions, which are directed against Greece’s own sovereignty and survival. Taking advantage of the doctrine of “zero claims”, Turkey has imposed on Greece the gradual acceptance of the doctrine of the “Gray Homeland”.

Thus, Greece has voluntarily accepted the abstention from exercising its sovereign rights (exploration for hydrocarbons, expansion of territorial waters and non-promotion of Greek interests in the region) and has recognized vital interests of Turkey in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean beyond what he is entitled to.

Athens is committed to resolving border issues and avoiding unilateral actions (Imia, Madrid, Helsinki, Turkish seismic surveys, demarcation of the Greek-Egyptian EEZ, inaction against Ankara’s diplomatic moves). It has in practice accepted the “graying” of areas of Greek sovereignty and Greek sovereign rights, undermining its future and justifying this policy so as not to be forced to acknowledge the consequences of its choices.

The admonitions of the Milians

Anyplace Athens withdraws from, Ankara hurries to set foot in. Greece’s complacency about the appeal to The Hague, without addressing the general planning of Turkish foreign policy, traps it in a suicidal mentality. Ankara’s pressure will not stop with the resolution of the continental shelf issue. Recent diplomatic mobility is belated and costly for Greek interests.

The insistence on imposing European sanctions with appeals to third parties to stop the Turkish expansion, while Greece itself remains hesitant, are short-sighted and ineffective moves. Calmness and submissiveness will have a disastrous end. Just as the people of Milos (during the Peloponnesian War) wanted to save their city, trusting in luck, the favor of the gods and awaiting the intervention of the Lacedaemonians, so Greece imagines that the EU, the USA and the agreements it signs will save it.

The response of the Athenians to the negotiations with the Milians was that the Milians do not see clearly what is happening and that relying entirely on the Lacedaemonians, in hopes and luck they will lose everything. Eventually, luck and hopes were dashed, the Lacedaemonians did not come and the city fell. It is questionable how the domestic elite expects a different outcome from that of Milos and is doing exactly the same!