Nikos Mpiniaris: Turkey lashes out on the geopolitical chessboard – Who would ally with a phobic Greece?

The latest developments in the Middle East send many messages to many recipients in the region, but also to history. The start of Israel’s diplomatic and other relations with the United Arab Emirates opens the door for a different Arab attitude towards Israel.

The famous proposal of Saudi Arabia, which was adopted by the Arab League in 2002, seems to be for Greece to have been forgotten. Why did the Emirates make this move on the chessboard of the Middle East, knowing that on the streets of Arab countries, the sentiment is in favor of the Palestinians?

The partial withdrawal of the Americans from the region and the possibility that Trump will not be president next January, makes the Emirates and Saudi Arabia look for a support in the region, against Iran and Turkey. The only support in the region is Israel, which is a tiny state in terms of territory and and population, but it is also a giant in terms of weapons systems and investments in all kinds of new technologies.

Since the day the Emirates-Israel agreement was signed, $ 665 million worth of new state-of-the-art investments have been announced in the Emirates, which will be supported by Israel. Israel has shown that it is ready to fight. It has fought for its “just” or “unjust” interests. It is a player that can be relied on for its determination.

The setting in the Aegean

Turkey started the game on the chessboard of the Aegean and Cyprus in 1954. It chose the white pieces and made the first move. The pogrom against the Greeks of Constantinople began and continued in 1955. The black pieces, the Greek side, made no moves, not even to defend itself. Stunned by the civil war and poverty, with only the Marshall Plan and the American factor to help, Greece did not dare to make a single defensive move. It did the same by participating in the Zurich Accords, entering the game of the guarantor powers with the blessings of Great Britain. Again the black pawns remained motionless. Turkey had two pieces on the chessboard and Greece none.

And the game continued in 1964, with the bombing of Cyprus, until Giorgos Papandreou found an opening with the Americans (that is, their fear of the expansion of the USSR) and persuaded President Johnson to stop them. He also made a move, sending a division, without heavy weapons, to Cyprus. The move was taken back by the Junta that took power in Athens in 1967.

Thus we arrived in 1974 and the betrayal of Hellenism, by the Greek army itself. The lack of reaction from the democratic government that followed and all the others, now ranked Greece among the powerless players. No analysis of foreign columnists deals with Greece. Everyone is talking about Turkey’s initiatives.

Greece’s accession to the EEC was an act of uplifting our economic size, but also a guarantee (so we thought) of preventing war, or pressure from Turkey. We were bitterly refuted during the Imia crisis. However, despite the effort to arm ourselves (and in part it succeeded), our policy was based on the “European perspective of Turkey”. What followed was folk dancing between the foreign ministers and a Greek PM becoming the best man at the wedding of Erdogan’s scion. Greek weakness became powerlessness, with the bankruptcy of 2010.

Alliances and midsummer night dreams

Today, everyone knows the consequences of a “Chamberlain-like” policy towards Turkey. In vain few analysts have been talking and writing for years about a Turkey that has no European perspective, but has instead cultivated the perspective of a regional power with complete control over the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. Those of us saying so were called warmongers and chauvinists.

Of course, no keen scholar of reality, between Greece and Turkey, was either bellicose or ultra-nationalist. One just kept eyes and eards open! In vain we saw Turkey not recognizing the Republic of Cyprus (EU member) and the EU whistling indifferently, hoping that Turkey will comply with its instructions! Turkey had spread the pieces on the chessboard and of course had taken the queen out of the game, occupying half of Cyprus. Recently, tt took out both rooks.

It has two vertical lines set, one through the MoU with Libya and the other with research vessels and drilling rigs for underwater research. Turkey’s “queen” has a free reign on the chessboard. Greece makes spasmodic moves, trying to gain allies and legal basis. The latter has no value, but can only be an excuse for an alliance, but which will be based only on the willingness of the parties to face Turkey.

The attitude of international players

From the EU, the basket contains only words. Germany, as usual, does not know what it is doing and is not interested in the consequences of a burdensome Greek compromise. Israelis and Egyptians, as well as the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, are directly affected by Turkish neo-Ottomanism. For them, a Greek retreat, with the tail under the legs and a settlement in favor of Turkish expansion, would be a fatal mistake.

None of the previous ones will be safe anymore, after such a victory of Turkey. The impact will be seen in the Balkans, where many neighbors will understand that Turkey is becoming a strong player in the region. First Albania and Skopje. The French, who accompany us as much as they can, do it for their own reasons. A victory for Turkey against us will turn the tide of EU foreign policy in favor of Germany.

The Franco-German axis, which balanced the economy with foreign policy, will be permanently distorted. Is France ready to fight us? Do not believe. The US will wait for the elections to decide on a new policy for the region. But we must not forget that anti-Russian sentiment in the United States has not subsided and in fact has greater influence in the Democratic Party. US intervention in favor of Greece is rather unlikely.

We have taken care to deactivate the Greek lobby, having divided the Greeks into natives and non-natives. The division in all its paranoid grandeur! Let the complacent politicians of Athens open a Jewish newspaper to see that half of their pages deal with the Jewish communities around the world. We, with our tens of millions, have no need for the assistance of Greeks everywhere!

Greece is broke and calm!

Russia remains in the game of abducting the “Helen of Troy” (Turkey) from NATO. And the Turkey-Greece conflict is butter on Russia’s bread, because it threatens to divide NATO and render it “brain dead”. But I’m very afraid that Putin has put a bitten off more than he can chew. His loss of face on the issue of Hagia Sophia has been overlaid by the plague of the coronavirus, but it remains a sad page in the history of Russia.

I always believed that there would be no Greek-Turkish war. The reason was that I saw Greek retreats on the horizon. But now Erdogan wants it all! He wants the Aegean and the islands and the EEZs of Greece and Cyprus, and he also wants Thrace. He is asking for a new Manzikert! Maybe a scenario for a short conflict is possible, where the “partners” and “allies” will mediate to settle the situation in favor of Turkey with tact for Greek public opinion.

But for Israel and Egypt, as well as for the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, this would be a very bitter pill to swallow. The threat of Turkey and its silent alliance with Iran is hanging over their heads. The balances in the region are threatened from the bottom up. This makes war more likely. In Greece they have forgotten that “if you want peace, prepare for war”.

Bankruptcy, the abysmal demographics, some hundreds of thousands of Muslim “refugees” and illegal immigrants, the nation-nihilist Left, neoliberal globalista and the good “Europeans” and rights peddlers who call patriots chauvinists, may wait their turn in line to pay their respects to the new order of things. Greek foreign policy has remained resolutely calm for the last 70 years. Now it will be both broke and calm!